With the sudden and quite unexpected departure of Syria's strongman, ending over half a century of the Assad family rule of the country the Middle East has been thrust into another period of uncertainty.
Given the fragmentation of the opposition forces in the country, united solely by the common goal of deposing the Iranian puppet in charge, it's hard to say how its future government may look like and if it's not on the precipice of another destructive civil war.
One thing we do know for sure, however, is that the swift collapse of the regime in Damascus would not be possible without Israel's determination in fighting its own enemies since the deadly attack of Hamas on October 7, 2023, which set off the chain of dominoes that have now brought down the last Ba'athist in the region.
Hard times require hard power
For over a year Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has fought enemies both at home and abroad.
Facing international accusations of genocide, domestic protests demanding a deal with Hamas in exchange for the release of remaining hostages, conflicts within his shaky cabinet and frequent skepticism and resistance of the administration in Washington, he has consistently defied them to now have been proven right.
Because, let's be clear, it's not Assad that is important here but the fact that his two seemingly powerful allies – Iran and Russia – have been incapable of saving him.
Heck, they have not even been able to prop him up against a bunch of disjointed rebel groups that have faced barely any resistance in their march across the country.
Within two weeks they have done what nobody could for over a decade.
It's now perfectly clear that it was never Assad who ruled Syria, but Tehran and Moscow, which have kept him in charge for as long as they could. Without their involvement the local army folded in days, even though the rebels bring no realistic promise of a brighter future.
None of that would have happened if it wasn't for Hamas' assault on Israel last year and consistent, resolute response of the government in Jerusalem.
Netanyahu knows that hard times require hard power and diplomacy is a sign of weakness in a region where everybody understands only the language of bullets and missiles.
The first one to yield is the loser – so he didn't, no matter how much pressure he was put under.
Iran wanted to use Hamas to derail Israel's attempts to build alliances with Arab nations, but ended up blowing its own instead.
Israel's rapprochement with Saudi Arabia is still on the cards, while Iran's proxies have almost entirely been wiped out. Hamas barely exists anymore, Hezbollah lost most of its capabilities and entire leadership, and now the dictator in Damascus, who offered Iran a land bridge to Lebanon, is gone too.
Whoever replaces him may still work with Russia but will no longer do Iran's bidding in the Levant, offering hope for Lebanon too.
What if?
I cannot emphasise enough the fact that if Netanyahu heeded any of the calls to back down in Gaza, to agree to a hostage deal, to limit his response to Hezbollah, none of it could have happened.
Let's just considering the following:
- Why did the Assad regime fall so easily? Because it lacked support from Iran and Hezbollah, as well as Russia which is overstretched in Ukraine.
- Why couldn't Iran help? Because Israel has decimated Hezbollah in Lebanon, while any help airdropped by Iran would immediately come under Israeli bombardment.
- Why was Hezbollah attacked so severely? Because it insisted on firing on Israel for as long as the war in Gaza was going on.
As you can see, if Israel negotiated with Hamas, ending the war in Gaza months ago, there would be no intervention in Lebanon and Hezbollah might still be intact, strong enough to support Assad with thousands of fighters and heavy equipment.
The entire Iranian alliance would remain in place.
But because Netanyahu refused to bend to internal and external pressure, he inflicted a devastating blow to Tehran, which has lost all of its proxies within a year of starting the indirect war with Israel.
Turns out that the alleged "mass murderer" sought by the ICC is Middle East's foremost peacemaker, toppling regimes and killing terrorists.
It's not the Hague he should be heading to but Oslo.
