When Volodymyr Zelensky clashed with JD Vance and Donald Trump about two weeks ago, I noted here that it was really a display of the limits of the U.S. president's power.
Trump believed he could intimidate Ukraine and its leader into accepting a humiliating deal that would give the US a blank cheque on the profits from rare earth mineral extraction, without offering any benefits to Kyiv.
He embarked on a campaign of brutally discrediting the Ukrainian president in the preceding weeks, leading up to a demand of US$500 billion from Ukraine’s resources. While this extortionate price tag was later removed and replaced with a more general description of joint cooperation, Zelensky still refused to sign anything that did not offer even a vague commitment to Ukrainian security.
These details were to be discussed at the White House on 28th February but never reached that stage after JD Vance attempted to lecture Zelensky on three years of war and his alleged lack of gratitude which, let’s be honest, he is perfectly entitled not to feel towards the duo occupying the White House today.
The Ukrainians left without a signed agreement, but it was Trump who truly lost, as he still needs to show some progress after boasting during last year’s campaign about how quickly he would end the war.
The escalating conflict between the two spooked Europe, which publicly rallied behind Zelensky but privately pressured him to mend his relationship with the American president.
What followed was the public prostration of the Ukrainian president, as he assured Trump that he wished to continue on the path towards peace under his leadership.
This seems to have merely been a public relations manoeuvre, likely advised as a way to appeal to Trump’s bloated ego, which craves recognition and tribute. No real concessions were made in the process, and in the meantime, the Americans suspended military aid to Ukraine, seemingly putting Kyiv under even more pressure.
American capitulation in Saudi Arabia
As both presidents retreated to the sidelines, talks between the two countries were set to recommence in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday — and what an eventful day it was!
After more than eight hours of negotiations, both sides, represented by U.S. Secretary of State Marc Rubio and, on the Ukrainian side, the Head of the Presidential Office, Andriy Yermak, reached an agreement calling for a temporary 30-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, subject to Moscow's approval.
What’s more, the USA has agreed to immediately resume all suspended military support for Ukraine.
Perhaps the White House was spooked by the rapid collapse of Ukrainian forces operating in Russia’s Kursk oblast and warnings, even from some within the GOP, that cutting Ukraine off could lead to a disaster worse than the American retreat from Afghanistan.
Donald Trump surely doesn’t want to risk being seen as worse than Sleepy Joe.
The contentious rare earth minerals deal wasn't even discussed and received only a brief mention in the final communiqué, which stated that the presidents of both countries would “conclude as soon as possible a comprehensive agreement for developing Ukraine’s critical mineral resources to expand Ukraine’s economy and guarantee Ukraine’s long-term prosperity and security”.
The mention of 'security' in the statement can be counted as another small diplomatic achievement for Kyiv, as it finally had its concerns recognised by the US.
All in all, the Saudi meeting is an all round victory for Ukraine.
American military aid has been fully resumed without any concessions from Kyiv, as the commitment to a 30-day ceasefire is also beneficial to Ukrainian soldiers. Moreover, the pressure is now on Moscow to sit down and engage in the peace process.
For the US, the mineral deal that Trump sought so badly has been replaced with a small coup in the form of the agreement for a military pause.
While far less impressive, it does give him something he can show Americans as evidence of his promised progress towards peace (in contrast to Biden’s expensive, three-year-long war).
However, given how high he aimed with his initial demands, it must be seen as capitulation to Ukraine. The mining agreement will only be discussed at some currently undefined time in the future, and the suspension of military assistance was not used as leverage to achieve any progress on it.
Instead, Kyiv gave Trump a ceasefire, which he now must convince Putin to take part in.
If accepted, I’m sure Ukrainian soldiers will welcome at least a monthly respite from having to repel wave after wave of Russian attacks. If not, the responsibility will lie with the Kremlin this time.
Advantage Zelensky
Despite the immense pressure he has been under over the past month, both before and after the explosive meeting in the Oval, the widely ridiculed 'comedian,' mocked by the far right, came out on top in the end.
The Americans removed the gun held to his head and settled for a very basic ceasefire that cost Zelensky nothing and could even bring a welcome pause in the fighting.
Of course, this is just the beginning of a long process that will likely see the Ukrainian president attacked again, probably by both Russia and the US, as either would prefer to see someone more pliant representing Kyiv.
Fortunately, there are enough legal obstacles to his resignation that he may just hold out, as he has so far, and force seemingly more powerful sides to relent.
The goal now is to prevent Russia from having a say in Ukraine’s future, even if it keeps the territories it currently occupies. That’s a line nobody in the West should allow Putin to cross.
