When Donald Trump boasted that he could end the war in Ukraine in a day nobody took him seriously, of course, and nobody should have since it was just a typical Trumpian hyperbole.
His underlying message, however, was that if not literally in a day then it would happen very, very quickly. That was his promise to the American people who elected him last November.
What we witnessed yesterday in the Oval Office is Trump smashing into the wall of reality.
It marked the culmination of a few weeks of repeated attacks against the Ukrainian president which went as far as to question his authority to represent his very own nation.
The author of The Art of the Deal has been so sure of his brash methods that he believed that this barrage would eventually force president Zelensky to sign a no-questions-asked agreement which would guarantee the US receives hundreds of billions of dollars from future rare earth minerals extraction in Ukraine, paying back American support for the country from the past 3 years (and then some), but without requiring any ongoing commitments from Washington.
The general conditions of the deal have reportedly been agreed upon several times (though each time the media leaks proved to have been rushed), with the meeting in DC seemingly "only" required to discuss potential security assurances between the two presidents.
Underestimated comedian
It's likely that Zelensky was invited to the White House to be put under direct pressure to concede to American demands. It's easier to say no to mid-level emissaries sent to Kyiv than to the US president in his residence in Washington.
Trump has been dismissive of the "moderately successful comedian" as he pinned a label of a "dictator" on him two weeks ago, in a series of attempts to undermine his position or even question his legitimacy. But comedians are observant and intelligent people, and after three years of war Zelensky is no pushover.
By standing up to Trump, Zelensky may have actually earned some respect, because the US president clearly believes Ukraine is solely dependent on America (which isn't really true, even if American support is very important).
But he's also a problem after Trump expended so much heavy ammunition to destroy his credibility and he still doesn't buckle. There really doesn't seem to be much the US can do to make him cave to their demands and Trump can't afford to look weak himself – even less after the fracas transmitted on TV.
The White House could probably try to go nuclear and threaten to cut off support immediately, though that might turn out to be both illegal (since the currently distributed aid has been approved) and against its desire not to tie the mineral deal to security commitments (which it would have to provide at least in the short term if it wanted to use the freeze on aid as leverage).
What's the real Deal?
The reason Trump is so aggressive is that he wants to make good on his election promises. He doesn't need much – he just needs two papers to wave around.
One, a ceasefire or peace agreement of some sort, no matter how punishing it could be to Ukraine and how fragile or temporary it is. And two, a broad deal that would entitle the US to receive profits from the mining of Ukrainian resources in the future.
Crucially, neither of these has to accomplish either of the goals – they are only required for Trump to 'claim' he ended the conflict and made the country some money, while his predecessors only "squandered" American dollars on another "forever war".
In practice it is Russia that wants a diplomatic resolution, because its economy is hurting badly and the country itself needs to import manpower and weaponry from... North Korea to keep its sluggish invasion going
Of course Putin can't be seen pleading for diplomacy as it would make him look weak – and this war is all about his ego and the messianic mission he has envisioned for himself as the modern tzar of the Russian nation.
Which is why he was hopeful for Trump's victory in November and eventually got what he had hoped for (probably even more, in fact).
Any agreement ostensibly "stopping" the war would only be used by Moscow to regroup and rearm itself, and give its economy a breather before it can resume military operations a few years down the road – likely after Trump's term is already over (so why would he care about the consequences?).
Unfortunately for him, however, even the visibly frustrated "comedian" at the helm of a bleeding nation can resist the "Art of the Deal".
The more time passes, the worse it's going to look for the White House as bold promises of quick peace get a painful reality check.
On the other hand, the shouting contest in the Oval Office, while eliciting voices of support, has also spooked many Europeans who will be pressuring Zelensky to find a way to mend the relations.
That said, just like Trump, Ukrainian president cannot be seen by his own people as weak and certainly not one selling the nation's future to a man who doesn't think Ukraine should even have a place at the table.
The deal, therefore, is off in its current shape and it's the American side that must offer some sort of a concession since the only thing Zelensky could do is capitulate to Trump's demands, which leave his country with nothing.
Art of the Deal, it seems, has created a situation without an honourable exit for either side and it might be Trump who needs to yield if he wants to score the political victory he so desires.
