Cynical attacks of Trump administration on Ukrainian democracy are exploiting general ignorance of the situation in the country, which prevents holding normal, democratic elections.
It's not only about the war itself but a cascade of consequences it has already caused, and the damage holding the vote in these conditions would have for the country in the future.
Legal obstacles
First of all, we have the legal obstacles, as per Ukrainian constitution all elections are suspended for as long as martial law is in effect (other countries, such as Poland, have similar provisions for times of war).
If martial law was lifted, however, then it would be illegal for the authorities to retain most of the mobilised army in its frontline positions and thousands of soldiers would have to be relieved to return home.
It doesn't take long to realise that it would immediately open up an opportunity for Russians to attack unopposed.
Skeptics could make an argument that the Ukrainian parliament could simply amend the constitution and permit holding the vote in these unusual circumstances.
After all, it's all just words on paper, no?
Even ignoring the fact that changing a country's constitution under foreign guns only to fulfil a baseless desire of a foreign power would destroy public trust in its entire political class, it would simply be very hard to do.
And downright suicidal to Ukraine's national self-interest
Practical obstacles
Organising the election - at home and abroad
The country has lost about 20% of its territory and more than 1/3rd of its people to war, through displacement in areas seized by Russia or emigration.
Currently around 27 million out of over 40 million of Ukraine's pre-war population live in Kyiv-controlled areas. Around 7 to 8 million fled abroad, another 7 million are in Russia or regions invaded by it.
Here are the very real problems it has created, that have no good answers:
- How does the country protect the polling process under threat of indiscriminate Russian attacks?
- How would these threats affect the turnout? Wouldn't people be afraid to go and vote? Wouldn't Russia try to sow panic?
- How do you safely organise voting for thousands of soldiers along the frontlines without giving away their positions, while protecting integrity of the election itself?
- How do you organise voting for as many as 8 million people currently living abroad (ex-Russia)? How many of them might choose not to vote as they may have avoided being called up to the army by leaving the country?
- What about as many as 7 million Ukrainian citizens living in Russia or in Russian-controlled areas of Ukraine? Would they have the right to vote? Who would organise it and control its integrity on the territory of the aggressor?
Legitimising Russian annexation & delegitimising Ukrainian democracy
Russia would certainly try to influence the vote, particularly through millions of Ukrainian citizens that are now living under its authority.
That said, the chances of Moscow implanting another puppet in Kyiv are rather slim.
While Zelenskyy enjoys high approval ratings, he would likely lose the election to Valerii Zaluzhnyi, former chief of the Ukrainian military and now Ukraine's ambassador in the UK. Either way, not a pro-Russian candidate.
The reason why Russia wants Ukraine to hold the vote is that the process would legitimise its territorial gains while undermining local democracy.
By organising an election, Ukrainian authorities would de facto publicly accept the loss of land to Russia, since nobody living there would receive democratic representation in the parliament or had the right to vote for the next president.
What's more, due to depressed turnout after so many people left the country while others may be terrorised by Russia to stay at home on the polling day (fearing attacks on stations where many civilians would congregate) any future president or parliament would have a very weak mandate.
This, again, would be used by Russia to portray Ukraine as a fake country ran by a warmongering minority while most people clearly "don't care" enough to even go and vote.
What's more, Kyiv would surely be pressed to accept votes cast in Russia and if it refused, for fear of manipulation by Moscow, it would yet again be labelled anti-democratic (especially when the likes of JD Vance go around parroting Kremlin's propaganda these days).
It's not a simple matter of just organising a vote, then, but dealing with a situation that would undermine the legitimacy of democracy in Ukraine, only to fulfil a demand by ignorant American right-wingers egged on by the real dictator – in Moscow.
