Within five short days Israel has managed to inflict enormous damage on Iran, not only decimating its air defence, bombing military bases and nuclear facilities, but largely eliminating the upper chain of military leadership.
Commanders of the army, IRGC, intelligence, some of the closest lieutenants of the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, have been sent to meet their maker.
Everyone, just not the Supreme Leader himself.
It's certainly not because he's so good at hiding that nobody knows where he is. Considering the depth of Israeli intelligence, they must have been well aware of his whereabouts from the very beginning. In fact, they likely could have killed him on the very first night.
Now he simply locked himself in a bunker in Tehran, together with his family, like he did last year. Even Donald Trump admitted that his location is well-known and he's an easy target, but no action will be taken against him (yet).
But why? Wouldn't decapitating the regime help Israel to then take advantage of the chaos it would cause?
Trump's half-mocking but ominous comments provide a hint to what's really going on and why Khamenei is still alive.
Donald Trump has a dream
The US president has built his political career on criticising the Washington establishment for wasting American resources on engaging in forever wars in some distant countries, forgetting about real problems at home.
He vowed to end it and keeps priding himself on never starting a new military conflict during his time in office. He wouldn't like this achievement to be blemished.
Like Israel, the US is currently only interested in complete destruction of Iranian nuclear program. No more talks, deals, meetings, dragging your feet, delaying, lying and manipulating.
"Just give it all up and you might be allowed to survive" – that is the message to the Iranian regime.
And while Washington could very well accelerate the process by deploying its massive bunker buster GBU-57 on board one of its B-2 bombers – the only planes capable of carrying and launching it against the deepest Iranian nuclear facilities in Fordo – it would come with a political cost to the US president, that he wishes to avoid.
Trump is dreaming of destroying Iranian nuclear program without firing a single American bullet. And he's close to achieving his goal. But he needs someone on the other side to sign it off. And the only person who can is Ali Khamenei.
Successful Israeli campaign, which decimated Iranian leadership and neutered most of its retaliation capacity has bought Trump all the time in the world. Iran has already gone to the Gulf Arabs pleading for mediation, but to no avail. Its missile capabilities appear to be dwindling quickly, as it launched less than ten last night and only around thirty in the past 24 hours or so.
Khamenei's regime has no cards to play and its visible panic only shows Americans that they can demand unconditional capitulation.
IAF jets are operating freely in the skies over Tehran and Israeli intelligence is so robust that it was able to target and kill the replacement of one of the most senior military commanders, and another close advisor to the Supreme Leader, just four days after his appointment following the assassination of his predecessor. This suggests that Mossad agents are embedded among the highest ranking Iranian officers, surely adding fuel to their paranoia.
As days go by, Iran's situation is only going to get worse, up to the point when Americans lose their patience and greenlight a full-on regime change with Israeli hands.
Right now the Supreme Leader has only two options: either give up the entire nuclear ambition willingly but stay in charge (while facing catastrophic humiliation) or get bombed out of power, together with the centrifuges and research facilities.
That's it.
Trump would prefer the former, because it would allow him to brag about taking down Iran without engaging American forces. But if Khamenei wants to become a martyr then the White House might end up granting him his final wish, allowing Israel to do with the country whatever it wants.
Ensuing chaos following the death of the Supreme Leader, even as he was reportedly either removed or ceded some responsibilities already, would leave Iran without a central figure and could be the final nail in the coffin of the morale of its soldiers.
US could then help Israel by either bombing Fordo and other buried facilities, or aid it in conducting raids by IDF's special forces, to destroy them from within.
With military command in disarray, in a country whose leader was just blown up, that mission would likely be much easier.
The ball is in Khamenei's court now and he has at most a few days to decide whether he wants to go down as a martyr (likely together with his family, as his son was among the candidates to replace him) or a disgrace who capitulated to the two Satans he vowed death to for decades.
He could also be spared only to be made an example of just like Saddam Hussein was in Iraq – which would be a blend of public humiliation and death.
It sure seems like getting blown up by the Jews might be most attractive option of the three. Donald Trump would not be pleased, though.
