Israel is undoubtedly losing the global public relations war over Gaza. Numerous articles have been published in recent months, warning that it's a threat to the country, as it is seeing the backing of some of its allies erode.
UK, Canada, Australia and France have now decided to recognise Palestine (although it's hard to tell what that entity even is).
Others are saying that Israel is risking becoming a pariah, an outcast, isolated by the world for its allegedly violent conduct vs. Palestinians.
The conclusion is, then, that Israel is committing suicide on the global stage, regardless of the accomplishment of its military goals on the ground. It may win the war with Hamas but it's going to turn the world against itself.
So, why is it so bent on turning up the heat – like it did just two weeks ago in Doha, when it tried to wipe out Hamas’ entire leadership with an unprecedented airstrike in the heart of US-ally Qatar?
It's a result of several political factors but also a rational assessment not only that Israel is both morally and legally right, but that it isn't the one actually shooting itself in the head – the West is.
Jews have grown used to antisemitism
One of the common threads in the media commentary is that the fallout from the war in Gaza is threatening to increase antisemitic incidents around the world.
What else is new?
Even before 2023 antisemitic incidents made up the majority of religion-based hate crimes in the USA (55%), Canada (67%) or Germany (81%) and have been on a consistently upward trend.
What's more, the recent surge started in 2023, right after the October 7 butchery, when Israel was supposedly enjoying global goodwill which many commentators are now alleging it is squandering.
You can see there was little of it to be found, as American Jews found themselves harassed right after 1200 of their Israeli brethren had been brutally murdered and 250 more kidnapped.
Even in the years prior, between 2015 and 2022, there was a fourfold increase in antisemitic incidents in the US, quite regardless of who was in charge of Israel and what happened in Palestine.
In fact, from Israel's perspective the heat being turned up on the Jews abroad is hardly a concern given that it may motivate many of them to leave their increasingly violent countries and bring their knowledge and skills to the homeland. Sounds like a strategic win, especially when you consider the population growth among Palestinians next door.
Antisemitism has become part and parcel of living in the West as Europe and America have for years permitted mass immigration from i.a. Muslim-majority countries, which has fuelled the rise in crime across the board.
Dead men walking
That crime and growing public resistance to more immigration have already caused massive political turmoil in the countries that are now trying to lecture Israel.
So why should Benjamin Netanyahu bend to Emmanuel Macron or Keir Starmer – both hugely unpopular with their own citizens?
Meanwhile their Canadian and Australian counterparts owe their jobs to a last minute domestic backlash against Donald Trump, rather than broad support for the left in their own societies.
They and other political leaders in the West aren't bashing Israel out of sympathy for Palestinians but to appease their own populations, increasingly filled with people coming from hotbeds of Islamic fundamentalism.
Supporting Israel is not only sensitive politically but has become a security threat after years of importation of migrants that even Arab nations steered clear of.
Here's UAE's foreign minister warning Europe in 2017 that it has become a breeding ground for terrorism, because of its naivety on immigration from the Middle East:
Israel doesn't really care if France, Britain or Canada want to jump off the cliff – but it is not interested in following them.
It is on the frontlines of the war against Islamic extremism, fighting Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis and their sponsor Iran. Why should it allow its security policy to be dictated by spineless weaklings whose only strategy to appease the domestic Muslim electorate is to feed Israel to the wolves?
The West is committing suicide before our eyes and is in no position to lecture those putting up a fight.
Netanyahu is betting on long-term trends
Israeli prime minister sees that his international opponents are weak and their attack on his country are ultimately counterproductive to their own electoral success, as authorities in Jerusalem are fighting quite similar people to those who descended on the West by the millions in recent years.
Immigration from societies culturally incompatible with civilised democracies and the problems it is causing is not a passing issue. Which means that sooner or later, Israel is going to see far friendlier administrations take over. It's already happening.
Emmanuel Macron is a sitting duck until 2027 after his party lost the parliamentary majority and was just forced to appoint the 3rd prime minister in a year.
In the UK, Starmer is only helping to fuel the wave elevating the Reform Party of Nigel Farage. Left-wing victories in Canada and Australia were, as I said, an accidental flip caused by emotional knee-jerk reaction to Donald Trump taking office in America, after a persistent slide of the left-wing parties in the previous two years.
Virtually every major developed nation is recording a significant swing to the right.
After SPD's implosion in the last cycle Germany is in the hands of centre-right CDU, and has to contend with the rise of the far-right AfD. Italy is already run by conservatives, while Spain sees "progressives" losing badly in the polls to the centre and the far right, casting a shadow over the shaky premiership of Pedro Sanchez – so boldly vocal about Israel in recent days. Even Japan has its own MAGA party now with the LDP scrambling to appease the anti-immigrant sentiments.
France is more polarised, split almost evenly between the far right and the far left, although even in the absence of Marine Le Pen due to her disqualification, it's quite likely the next president will hail from among the nationalists.
Diplomatic recognition of Palestine might be a stinging gesture for Israel, but it is irrelevant in practice. Before the latest additions over 140 countries did that already. So what?
Soon other nations may realise that the people Israel is fighting are quite like those they welcomed in the past decade, only to see them take advantage of their generosity while bringing crime and violence.
Netanyahu has nothing to lose
Israel itself has witnessed a total wipeout of the political left – for decades the leading political force in the country – now relegated to a small minority in the Knesset, with the political mainstream extending from the far right to the centre.
The next election is due next October in what is shaping up to be another very tight vote. And while, according to the polls, Netanyahu's coalition seems to be a few seats short of a majority, the country will not meaningfully change direction if the opposition takes charge.
What's more, at 75, the longest-serving Israeli prime minister must be aware that he doesn't have much time left. Even in good health how long could he plausibly stay in charge for? Another 4 years? Maybe 8?
And since he doesn't have the time, what can he really lose? Meaningless sympathy of increasingly irrelevant foreign leaders, when he can write himself into the history books as the leader who cemented Israel's revival within its ancient borders and prevented Palestine from ever becoming a reality?
October 7 and the resulting war in Gaza have created opportunities to tighten the screw on Palestinian aspirations.
Netanyahu was able to use it to decimate both Hamas and Hezbollah, and destroy Iranian nuclear programme, killing top scientists and military leaders of the regime in Tehran.
Meanwhile, each additional day the war is fought is another day delaying the potential creation of a Palestinian state, leaving it in the rubble of Gaza, while providing an excuse for the creation of more settlements in the West Bank.
Hamas may be cheering the useful idiots in the West, rewarding the butchery it perpetrated in 2023, but in reality Palestinian independence is now further away than ever.
Yes, Israel might be losing the PR war but it is winning where it really counts, while its vocal critics – and Palestine supporters – are heading into the dustbin of history.
