In the aftermath of American capture and extraction of Nicolas Maduro from Venezuela, voices on Chinese (and global) internet have begun suggesting that China could use it as an excuse or even template for dealing with Taiwan.
This narrative could be encouraged or even manufactured by Beijing, which would have great interest in seeing it make its way to international media (as it has), painting the USA in a bad light while excusing any future action of the communist regime against Taiwan.
What's more, many useful idiots are sure to pick it up and direct it at Trump, making it even more effective in the propaganda war that China is waging on the civilised world.
The reality is, however, that doing to Taiwan what the US did to Venezuela would simply have no effect. Why? Because Taiwan is a democracy.
Decapitating a dictatorship is fairly easy, because the whole country has a single point of failure – its leader.
Given the brutality and corruption he depends on to wield power, respect for the rule of law typically does not exist. Which means that there are neither any individuals nor institutions that could enjoy genuine legitimacy to continue iron-fisted governance.
Unless a successor is appointed and groomed into his role, the demise of a tyrant usually leads to chaos and often bloody rivalry for the empty throne. In Venezuela's case that threat comes from the US military, after it completed an impressive operation to capture Maduro without any losses. That show of power should be enough to limit a violent backlash. Are Venezuelan soldiers going to die for... what? Whom exactly?
The system that depended on one man has not only lost him but is facing American invasion if it does not comply with the wishes of the US president.
There's currently nobody who could represent Venezuela and call the shots in its name. The parliament, the military, police and paramilitary colectivo militias all depended on Maduro. Of course, nominally his VP is going to replace him after having her role rubber-stamped by the local courts, but her influence is unlikely to be either strong or inspire much loyalty from other regime cronies currently looking for lifeboats. It's all for show.
If you try to map a similar scenario onto Taiwan, it's hard to see what China could accomplish if it tried a forceful abolition of the local presidency.
Democracies have many flaws but those flaws have been accepted in the developed world for one fundamental reason – survivability of the state.
Historically, political succession used to be a messy affair. Thrones were claimed, rightful successors executed, violent rebellions organised in fight for power.
Democracies, on the other hand, can only either fail internally (if people genuinely vote away their rights by supporting wrong candidates for too long) or have to be conquered (like Russia has tried for four long years in Ukraine).
If China removed Lai Ching-te from Taiwanese presidency the country would still function the next day. The Vice-President would take over and if not her then the Premier and if somehow Beijing managed to remove all three then the Legislative Yuan would step in, while the military would manage itself, as it is prepared to.
Because the chain of succession is well-defined, responsibilities divided and rule of law respected, a democracy such as Taiwan is extremely flexible in the face of an external threat.
The only way the island can fall is either if it is betrayed from within or militarily conquered from outside. Decapitating its leadership would accomplish nothing because it does not depend on any single individual or even a narrow group of people who could be kidnapped or killed.
That's why Trump's unilateral intervention in Venezuela changes nothing for Taiwan.
To topple a dictatorship you only need to break the dictator. To conquer a democracy you need to break its people.
