Exactly 12 months ago Donald Trump celebrated his return to the White House after decisively defeating Kamala Harris. This year, almost precisely to the day, he should be popping champagne to fete the result of the mayoral election in New York City, won by an avowed socialist representing some of the most extreme ideas in the Democratic Party.
Contrary to what left-leaning commentators would like you to believe, Zohran Mamdani's victory is not a rebuttal of Trump or a sign of the MAGA movement, that underpins his presidency and the Republican majorities in Congress, losing steam.
Even Democrats know this, which is why their rich and influential supporters prodded former governor Andrew Cuomo to run against Mamdani despite losing the official Democratic primary, filling his war chest with millions of dollars in a last ditch attempt to save their city – and their party.
Of course some will try to frame Cuomo's challenge as a class war funded by the rich against the socialists representing working-class New Yorkers. It just so happens, however, that the prosperity of the wealthy free market capitalists tends to correlate with the well-being of everybody else, everywhere in the world. They understand the consequences of populist promises far better than the masses do and go out of their way to support the better alternative.
A godsend for the GOP
Americans will return to the polls next November to vote in the midterms. Traditionally the president's party loses seats after his first two years in office.
While Republicans are likely to hold a narrow lead in the Senate, they won only a 3-seat majority in the House last year. Any losses here would throw Trump's legislative agenda out the window.
Thanks to Zohran Mamdani, however, the GOP can hope to receive plenty of ammunition against the Democrats, who are going to have a major headache dealing with the new mayor.
This is because his flagship promises require cooperation from the state legislature and the governor.
Contrary to the impression he cultivated during his campaign, Mamdani cannot single-handedly raise taxes on corporations or the wealthy to fund lavish spending on free childcare or buses – he can only plead with state legislators to enact them.
But those assemblymen, in turn, depend on rich donors who may be hostile to his ideas. Without campaign money they risk losing their seats – but by turning on Mamdani they may alienate their very own progressive voters. It's a catch-22.
What's more, the Democratic Party as a whole is still trying to process its defeat to Trump and MAGA in 2024. Leaderless and divided it seeks a renewed identity – and it is unlikely to find it on the far left.
National elections are not decided in the already very liberal cities but in the moderate swing states whose inhabitants have exhibited exhaustion with the left-wing agenda focused on social justice. Delusional coastal elites, consumed by ideological battles, struggle to resonate with middle-ground voters elsewhere.
That's why Democrats are facing a real conundrum as a result of Mamdani's win, which is undermining their competitiveness at the national level.
If they resist changing the law to fulfil his pledges to New Yorkers they will prove themselves to be internally conflicted as a party and incapable of governing.
If they acquiesce, they could lose moderate voters in close congressional races and the swing states in the next presidential election – especially if Mamdani's ideas only exacerbate problems in New York City (on crime, housing or local economy).
Whatever they decide, the Republicans only stand to gain.
While the GOP isn't a monolith either, the party's message on crime, immigration or the economy is largely consistent. In comparison to the infighting on the Left it may just be enough to put the Republicans on course to retain their holdings in Congress.
Bad omens abroad
If the DNC was looking for some hopeful stories in other countries it is out of luck here too. Across the entire developed world the Left is in retreat. Moderate Democrats appear to see it already but haven't yet figured out what to do about it.
Surprise last minute victories in Canada or Australia this year were just a knee-jerk rebuttal of Trump rather than a genuine choice of the people, who had up to that point been quite disillusioned with their own progressives.
Germany, France, UK or Japan are all seeing a surge on the political Right as well.
The British example might be the closest to where the US appears to be heading, with Zohran Mamdani playing the role of Sadiq Khan, the current left-wing, Muslim mayor of London, who won his first term in 2016 – the same year the entire nation voted to leave the EU.
This political divide between major urban areas and the rest of the country appears to be a global phenomenon – and a potentially fatal one for the Democratic Party in the US.
Running major cities is great but running the country is the real goal – and you can't win it with urban electorate alone. Not in America at least. Kamala Harris may have gotten nearly 70% of the votes in NYC, including 80% in Manhattan, but still lost the election. It's just not enough.
But to be able to get moderate voters on side, your party cannot have the face of a transgender-loving Muslim socialist fantasising about abolishing private property, whose father suggested that America is the root of all evil and Hitler's genocide of the Jews was inspired by Abraham Lincoln.
